As the most recent polls had predicted, the Quebec Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ) has achieved a landslide victory in yesterday's parliamentary election in Quebec. The pro-federalism party led by neurosurgeon and professor Philippe Couillard (56 years old) has achieved 41.5% of the votes and 70 out of 125 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec, 20 more than in the 2012 election.

PLQ's absolute majority puts an end to 18 months of minority government by the Parti Québécois (PQ, pro-sovereignty social democratic), which in the 2012 election had secured victory with 54 seats. PQ was yesterday left with 30 seats, its worst result since 1989. Speaking about percentage of vote, the result is even worse: PQ only got 25.4% of the votes, its lowest figure since 1970. Hitherto Prime Minister Pauline Marois announced her resignation as PQ leader, not even being able to retain her seat for the constituency of Charlevoix-Côte-de-Beaupré.

The collapse of PQ has benefited Quebec's third party, the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ, pro-autonomy centre-right), with 23% of the total votes and 22 seats (up from 19 in 2012). Quebec Solidaire (QS, pro-independence left) has also progresses, with 7.6% of votes and 3 seats (one more than two years ago).

Reasons for the PQ defeat

The PQ defeat has drawn a lot of attention because, in fact, Marois had decided to call a snap election in search of an absolute majority, an outcome that opinion polls said could be likely only a month ago. How has the scenario changed so much since then, leading to one of PQ's worst defeats in its history? There are several interpretations. Journalist Donald Charette writes in The Huffington Post that sovereignty issue has a lot to do: "The mere evocation of another referendum during this campaign has been enough to push voters into the arms of Philippe Couillard", he argues. Marois had been cautious to clearly state she would be calling a third referendum (she said she would not be "pushing Quebecers" into a vote, and that the referendum would be held "at an appropriate time").

But other PQ members have not been as restrained as the Prime Minister. This is the case of Pierre Karl Peladeau, one of PQ's most notable leaders, who during campaing stressed the idea of independence, despite knowing that all the opinion polls say a majority of Quebecers are opposed to it. President of major pollster Ipsos Reid Quebec Luc Durand says his institute's data detected that the PQ began to crumble when Peladeau "came in and placed the emphasis on sovereignty". At that moment, Durand argues, PQ "lost control of their own campaign". PLQ was ready to benefit from fear or dissatisfaction of a part of the Quebec population regarding the desirability of another independence referendum.

However, Jean-Jacques Samson writes in Le Journal de Quebec that Marois's "recklessness and  is to blame for the whole defeat. " a victim of his reckless and unbridled opportunism". Samson further states that the PQ did not realize that "the fragility of the economy and public finances in Quebec" made any sovereignty project "illusory" ​​in the short term. It was indeed in economy that the PLQ focused much of its campaign. Also attacking Marois, La Pressesuggests that the Prime Minister has made ​​the mistake of ignoring several constituencies during the campaign, a decision that could have benefitted the PLQ.

(Image: Philippe Couillard / Picture by François Thivierge.)