Rumors about a snap election in Quebec had been persistent for months. Quebec Prime Minister Pauline Marois (picture) has today announced that Quebecers will be called to renew all 125 Quebec National Assembly members on April 7th.

Marois (pro-independence Parti Québécois, PQ) leads a minority government since 2012, when the party won the National Assembly election, with 32% of the vote and 54 seats. Opposition parties hold 71 seats, so Marois depends on PLQ (50 seats) or Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ, 19 seats) in order to pass laws. PQ wants to implement a program of progressive advancement towards sovereignty -without necessarily calling a new referendum on sovereignty- and feels that an overall majority is needed for that.

Health system is one of the areas in which the sovereignist party wants Quebec to be de facto independent. The Quebec Government on Monday released a report on "federal interventions in the health and social services sector from 2002 to 2013". The report, Quebec Health Minister Réjean Hébert said, concludes that "federal government interference causes a break in the flow of services offered" to Quebec citizens. The study suggests, moreover, that within the period studied, Quebec has received 830 million Canadian dollar (545 million euro) less from the Canadian Government than its demographic warrant.

Good election prospects for PQ

The snap election arrives after last month election polls suggest that PQ could reach between 35% and 40% of the votes. This, thanks to the Quebec electoral system, would probably be enough for PQ to secure an absolute majority. Liberals could get 33% to 35% of the votes. Major losers could be pro-autonomy, Quebec nationalist CAQ: the party is set to lose some 10 percentage points and stand at 16% or 17% of the votes. Finally, the pro-independence, socialist Québec Solidaire could achieve 7% to 10% of the votes (up from 6% in 2012).

PQ's electoral victory will not necessarily lead to a third referendum on Quebec sovereignty, but that scenario cannot be ruled out either. Marois disclosed last month that her party was willing to release a "white paper" on the future of Quebec in voter again supported PQ in an upcoming election. This move could herald a referendum. But she also said her party would not "push" Quebecers into a referendum on sovereignty. Memory of the two previous defeats (1980 and 1995) heavily weighs in the pro-independence camp: there must be solid reason to believe in a "yes" win before a new referendum is called, PQ leaders argue. Latest polling data on the issue (December 2013) show that "yes" to sovereignty would now be supported by 44% of voters, while 56% would reject it.