Two different opinion polls show that sovereignist, pro-independence parties have a wide lead over Spanish unionist parties in Catalonia, three months after the last Catalan parliamentary election was held. But surveys also show that the largest sovereignist party (centre-right Convergence and Union, CiU) is steadily losing ground to leftist pro-independence parties Republican Left (ERC) and Popular Unity Candidature (CUP). It is also found that a majority of Catalans would support independence from Spain in the event of a referendum.

According to the most recent poll by the Opinion Research Centre (CEO) of the Catalan Government released today, CiU would now get 40 to 42 MPs (down from 50 they now have) in the 135-seat Catalan Parliament (left picture). ERC would come second, with 27-28 seats (up from 21). Federalist Spanish unionist Socialist Party (PSC) would get 19-20 (now they hold 20), while conservative unionist Popular Party (PP) would place fourth with 16-17 seats (currently 19). Sovereignist ecosocialist Intiative (ICV) could obtain 12-13 seats (13), close to 11-12 seats by unionist Citizens' Party (C's, now 9). CUP would take 4 to 6 seats (they hold 3 now).

The results by the Opinion Research Centre are very similar to those released last month by research firm GESOP, with only slight changes (PSC could get less support, while CUP could grow further).

Support to independence over 50%

CEO poll also asks respondents for attitudes over independence and identity. According to the results, 54.7% of those asked would now vote "yes" in the event of a referendum on independence. 20.7% would vote against, and 17% would abstain. 5.4% declare they do not know. It must be added that at least 50% of those who say that would abstain say that would do so because of reasons mainly opposing Catalan independence.

The current Catalan government (led by CiU and supported by ERC) plans to hold a referendum on self-determination in 2014. One month ago, the Catalan Parliament declared the Catalan people to be "a sovereign political and legal subject".

With regards to identity, 29.1% of respondents say they feel "only Catalan", 27.9% "more Catalan than Spanish", 35.1% "as Catalan as Spanish", 2.7% "more Spanish than Catalan" and 2.9 "only Spanish".

Is the "yes" lead that wide?

Other recent opinion polls narrow the "yes" lead. A survey by the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB) said 46.5% of Catalans support independence, while 28.8% oppose it and 16.3% would abstain. Research firm Feedback went even further last October by suggesting that 53% would vote "yes", while a 39.4% would choose "no", and that the pro-independence side could even lose the referendum if the European Union explicitly rejected the establishment of a Catalan state. In that event, Feedback said, 44.7% would vote "yes" while 46.9" would vote "no".