The Scottish Liberal Democratic Party has dumped last Friday the possibility of backing Alex Salmond's (SNP) initiative of holding a referendum on Scotland's status next year. The result would decide whether to maintain the status quo, to extend the country's powers or to start a process of secession. In a close-door party conference in Dunfermline (Dùn Phàrlain, in Scottish Gaelic), they discussed their stance on the eventual SNP's referendum proposal in parliament. LibDems are officially a pro-federation party against independence, but some party officials are in favour of organizing the consultation, as it was made public few weeks ago.

LibDem's refusal is no good news for SNP's aspirations, as 16 seats held by LibDems, 2 by the Greens and 1 by an independent MSP together with SNP's 47 seats would have been enough to reach a majority of 65.

Since it is not plausible that Labour and Conservatives vote in favour of the referendum bill, it is likely that Salmond will have to dump the initiative in spite of SNP's call to all parties "to support the people of Scotland's right to have their say over the country's future".

If the plebiscite is not organized in 2010, the question of Scotland's independence will be a key subject in 2011 parliamentary elections, as polls show growing support for the Scottish National Party.

That is why some analysts believe the debate on Scotland's self-determination is far from over. Iain Macwhirter, for instance, has written in Herald Scotland that "Lib Dem veto makes a referendum inevitable". Macwhirter thinks the Liberal Democrat opposition to a coalition government with the SNP after 2007 elections unless nationalists ruled out the possibility of a referendum was a strategic mistake because the SNP's 47 seats would not have been enough to pass the referendum bill. Thus, on MacWhirther's view, SNP has done well under minority "and might be a lot less keen on coalition-making than they were in 2007" as they expect to improve results in 2011 elections. According to the analyst, SNP would see its support grow and as a result both Labour and Lib Dems will become much more nationalistic to pre-empt the SNP.

Further information:

• BBC: No Lib Dem backing for referendum
• Telegraph.co.uk: Alex Salmond challenged to dump independence referendum
• Herald Scotland: Why Lib Dem veto makes a referendum inevitable
• Nationalia:Scottish LibDems to discuss stance on Scotland's referendum for independence

See the Scotland profile and the dossier Peoples and nations today: Scotland for further information.