Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia have just signed association agreements with the European Union. Ukraine has also completed its alliance shift (renouncing former President Viktor Yanukovych's partnership with Russia and engaging with the EU instead). Meanwhile, Armenia continues to walk the other way. Although controversies are heated between those supporting the move and those opposed, Armenian leaders have chosen to join the Vladimir Putin-promoted Eurasian Union (see map, click on to expand it).

The Armenian government's stance came after three years of active work to prepare the association agreement between Armenia and the EU. But in September 2013, the Armenian government announced by surprise that it had decided to join the Customs Union (the embryo of the Eurasian Union) instead, an organization set to become a direct competitor of the European Union's enlargement in former Soviet countries. The Eurasian Union was formally established in May 2014, made up by Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, with the prospect of Armenia and Kyrgyzstan joining before the end of 2014.

The terms of the discussion

Russian authorities have repeatedly expressed their discontent toward Georgia and Moldova for having chosen to associate with the EU. But this disapproval has not been enough reason to prevent both countries from going west, even if they had previously been in the Soviet orbit -Russia's orbit in the end. As a counterpart, Russian authorities have promised Armenia a number of benefits that Georgia and Ukraine will not be enjoying, at least for a long time: investments in the energy and transport sectors, easing of visa regulations for Armenian citizens, and low prices on gas supplies.

Critics argue the Customs Union is still a mirage. According to them, this organization will only serve to further increase Armenia's dependence on Russia and, ultimately, it will contribute to the loss of Armenia's sovereignty and ability to defend its interests on crucial issues. Analytical Center on Globalization and Regional Cooperation (ACGRC, a pro-European Armenian think tank) Director Stepan Grigoryan holds that view. Grigoryan suspects that Moscow may have threatened Yerevan with supporting Armenia's foe Azerbaijan on the Karabakh issue. The Russian role in this respect is in fact much debated by analysts, mainly due to the fact that Moscow has increased arms sales and enhanced security relations with Azerbaijan.

[[InfoArmeniaEn]]

Other Armenian analysts, however, believe the choice made ​​by the Armenian government was the best possible. Pro-Russian Armenian website Natsionalnaya Idea Director Aram Khatchaturian writes that EU-Armenia negotiations had been based on relations marked by "pharisaic hypocrisy." Promises of economic growth, trade liberalization with the EU, less unemployment, and institutional and democratic improvement came from Brussels. But Armenian products, Khatchaturian says, are not competitive enough in order to be successful in the EU market, but on the other hand they can compete in the Russian area, in which they already have market niches. The EU proposal was introduced in "clumsy and confusing" terms, Khatchaturian argues, which denoted ignorance of what Armenia is now. The analyst thinks that in the end, the EU did not understand the essence of the Armenian identity, rooted in Eastern Christianity, unlike the EU's traditionally Catholic and Protestant countries, now overtaken by other values.

Depending on geopolitics

Over and above that, what the EU was looking for -and will likely continue to seek- was attracting to its geopolitical area the countries that Putin also covets. Both Brussels and Washington have blamed the Russian President for trying to rebuild the former Soviet Union: annexing Crimea now, and keeping hold of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria within its orbit are some of their arguments. The Russians reply that it is in fact the EU and NATO who have been expanding their eastern borders since the fall of the USSR, Moscow only trying to maintain what it considers to be its own geopolitical area.

In this context, Armenia increasingly appears at the mercy of Russia. Moscow maintains there its largest military base south of the Caucasus mountains (in Gyumri). Russia is committed to protecting Armenia in case of foreign aggression as a part of their military alliance (within the Collective Security Treaty Organization, CSTO). Renouncing the EU association agreement leaves Armenia "limited" geopolitical options, a Yerevan-based Regional Studies Center (RSC) report says. In recent years, RSC argues, Armenia had started to balance its "strategic partnership" with Russia with good relations with Iran and a growing approach to the Western bloc. Saying "no" to the association agreement is thus a "serious strategic blunder," the report concludes.

However, the EU can still hope that things change in the medium or long run, if Armenian-Russian relations make a shift when Russia's geopolitical expansion -a phenomenon currently linked to President Putin- comes to an end. Whatever the future scenario might be, the EU should bear in mind that Armenia's strong dependence to Russia -in key fields such as energy, jobs and defense- will likely continue to exist. To this, the EU will need to offer credible and tangible compensations. The question is whether Brussels will be willing to make such an offer in order to secure the membership of the smallest, less populated, lowest GDP per capita, and less strategic country in the region.