Catalan President Artur Mas has today announced that the referendum on independence for Catalonia will be held on November 9th 2014. The referendum will have a double question. The first one will be asking: "Do you want Catalonia to become a State?". The second one will be asking: "Do you want this State to be independent?".

People answering "yes" and "yes" will be clearly stating they want Catalonia to become fully independent. Those answering "yes" and "no" will be sending the message that they want Spain to recognize a particular status for Catalonia as one of Spain's constituent countries, without needing to declare full independence.

Which parties are supporting the referendum in Catalonia?

The double question has been agreed by four out of seven political parties in the autonomous Catalan Parliament, including the two largest parties (pro-sovereignity centre-right Convergence and Union, CiU, and pro-independence centre-left Republican Left, ERC). Two smaller parties (pro-sovereignty ecologist Initiative for Catalonia, ICV, and pro-independence leftist Popular Unity Candidature CUP) have also given their support.

(Background info on Catalan parties and their strength on this post.)

The Parliament of Catalonia is going to pass a legislative proposal that will be sent to the Spanish Parliament in Madrid. The legislative proposal will ask Spain permission to hold the referendum. It is likely that at least 87 out of 135 MPs in the Catalan Parliament will support the move. 28 MPs (Spanish nationalist PP and Citizens Party) will surely reject it. It is unknown what could happen with the federalist Party of the Catalan Socialists (PSC). The party is opposed to the referendum, but several of its MPs support it, so it might happen that the party will finally be divided over the vote.

Is it likely that Spain authorizes the vote?

It is quite unlikely that the Spanish Parliament accepts to give green light to the Catalan demand. The Spanish Government and the two major Spanish political parties (rightist PP and social-democrat PSOE) have immediately reacted to Mas's announcement and have again expressed their opposition to allow ever any referendum on independence in Catalonia. Spanish Justice minister Alberto Ruiz Gallardón has said that the referendum "will not take place", Spanish newspaper El País reports. PP Spokesman Alfonso Alonso has gone further by recalling that Catalan autonomy could be suspended.

Why do pro-union partisans reject the vote?

The pro-union camp argues that the Spanish Constitution does not allow the holding of a referendum on independence in any of Spain's 17 autonomous communities. The Constitution's Article 1.2 reads that "national sovereignty is vested in the Spanish people", while Article 2 refers to "the indissoluble unity of the Spanish nation". Thus, according to Spanish unionists, the Catalan nation does not officially exist and it is not possible for it to call a referendum of its own.

Why do Catalan pro-independence partisans say the vote should be done?

The Catalan pro-independence movement argues that democratic principles and the right to self-determination take precedence over any written Constitution. They also say that Catalan voters in 2012 decided to support the parties that had promised to hold of the referendum. Two of those parties, CiU and ERC -who hold an absolute majority in the Catalan Parliament-, agreed last year to hold the vote. In January 2013, almost two thirds of the Catalan MPs passed a motion declaring the Catalan people to be "a sovereign political and legal subject". Furthermore, Catalonia's Statute of Autonomy holds that Catalonia is a nation, a statement that challenges the Spanish Constitution's Article 2.

What level of support do the pro-independence and the pro-union camps enjoy?

Catalans have held two massive demonstrations for independence in 2012 and 2013. In 2012, more than one million people asked independence in a march that collapsed the Catalan capital city Barcelona. This year, some 1.6 million people joined hands across more than 400 kilometres, again demanding independence.

Pro-Spanish parties have organized their own demonstrations for Spain's unity in Catalonia. In October this year, they gathered some 18,000 people in downtown Barcelona.

According to a recent opinion poll by the Catalan Government's Centre for Opinion Studies, 70% of Catalans want an own state for Catalonia. When directly asked on independence, 55% said they would support it, 22% would reject it, 16% would abstain and 8% did not want to state their opinion.

Another recent survey by Catalan newspaper El Periódico holds that 53% of Catalans would support independence while 41% would oppose it in a "yes-no" referendum. 80% of those surveyed agree that Catalonia should have a higher level of self-government.

(Image, from left to right: Catalan Vice President Joana Ortega, Catalan President Artur Mas and Catalan Head of Opposition Oriol Junqueras.)