Within ten days Turkish Cypriots are called to polls to choose the new president of the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus for the next five years. Incumbent Dervis Eroglu cannot take re-election for granted, as two centre-left candidates are challenging him with some victory options. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the votes on April 19th, the two with the most votes will head to a second round on April 26th. The very next day, whoever wins will again be charged with leading the Turkish Cypriot community into peace talks with the Greek Cypriots.

Negotiations have been stopped for the last six months. On October 7th, the President of Cyprus, Greek Cypriot Nicos Anastasiades, suspended his participation in the negotiating table after Turkey sent a seismic research vessel into Cypriot territorial waters. Sending the ship was Ankara's answer to the start of oil drilling by the ENI-Kogas consortium, under a license issued by the government of Cyprus. Turkey and Northern Cyprus argue that the Cypriot government has no right to unilaterally grant exploration licenses without taking into account Turkish Cypriot interests.

Now, however, new prospects for resuming negotiations are emerging, coinciding with the Turkish Cypriot election and after UN special envoy for Cyprus Espen Barth Eide has said Anastasiades is willing to go back to the negotiating table. Eide has predicted this could happen "within weeks, not months," shortly after the Northern Cypriot election. The reason for Anastasiades resuming talks is the fact that Turkey has recently withdrawn the seismic research vessel from Cypriot waters.

All in favor of federation, with nuances

Anastasiades, Eroglu and their respective predecessors Demetris Christofias and Mehmet Ali Talat all agree that Cyprus becomes a bicommunal federation, made up by a Greek Cypriot and a Turkish Cypriot state, with one single international personality. It is the same stance held by the three main candidates to the Northern Cypriot presidency, although with nuances.

Eroglu, with the support of the National Unity Party (UBP, conservatives and liberals), is more inclined to adopt a tougher stance towards the Cypriot government, is less interested in changing the current status quo, and places itself closer to the Turkish government and to settlers from Turkey arrived in Cyprus in recent decades.

By contrast, both left-of-centre candidates Sibel Siber and Mustafa Akinci seek more Northern Cypriot independence from Ankara and tend to highlight the importance of respecting the rights of the centuries-old Turkish Cypriot community.

Akinci's manifesto, who is supported by the Communal Democracy Party (TDP, social democrats and socialists), stresses the importance that "Turkish Cypriots have a say in their own institutions." Furthermore, it calls for a "new kind of relationship" with Turkey "based on mutual respect."

Siber's manifesto, who runs as the Republican Turkish Party (CTP Social Democrats) candidate and holds the post of Northern Cypriot Parliament Chairwoman, highlights the need for a Greek Cypriot-Turkish Cypriot agreement on shared power and sovereignty on the island.

Eroglu is leading opinion polls for the first round, albeit far from the absolute majority. Therefore, incumbent Eroglu is likely to run in a second round facing either Akinci or Siber. At that stage, each one of the centre-left candidates could have a chance to win if they are able to capture all the leftist votes, as Mehmet Ali Talat did in 2005.