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Uncertainty in Kosovo after PM Hashim Thaçi's narrow win in parliamentary election

Prime Minister starts contacts to form new coalition despite having lost votes · Opposition leader calls to form coalition government without PDK · Serbian government says autonomy for Kosovo Serbs closer after Sunday's election

Kosovo Prime Minister Hashim Thaci (left picture) has started contacts in order to form a new coalition government led by himself, but with the uncertainty of whether he will eventually be able to reach a deal. His Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK, centre-right) won Sunday's parliamentary election by losing 1.5 percentage points and just staying at 30.71% of the vote, which leaves it far from the absolute majority. Distribution of Assembly seats is not yet known, but percentage of votes suggests that PDK will stay slightly below the 34 seats figure it achieved in 2010 (out of a total 120 seats in the Kosovar Assembly).

If contacts have success, this would mean Thaçi would have won the right to rule the Balkan country for the third consecutive term. Yet, the opposition parties now know that current PDK government partner Alliance for a New Kosovo (AKR) has failed to secure any seat since it has fallen below the 5% threshold required by electoral law. Thus, PDK needs to find other partners.

According to several Kosovo newspapers, Thaçi has two main options: either a gran coalition with Kosovo's second largest party, the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK, center right, 25.75% of the vote), or a coalition with several smaller parties, which could include the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK, center right, 9.61%) and the Serbian minority party, the Serbian List (4,17% of the votes, not affected by the 5% threshold since minority parties are excluded from that rule). According to Kosovo daily Koha Ditore, PDK has set the post of Prime Minister for Thaçi as a condition for any agreement.

Call to form alternative government

Kosovo's third strongest party Vetëvendosje (center-left, 13.51% of the vote) rules out any deal with Thaci, to whom it blames for being corrupt and not doing much to develop the country.

Fifth strongest party Initiative for Kosovo (PDK split, centre-right, 5.26% of the vote) leader Jakub Krasniqi is also voicing opposition to any deal with the PDK.  Speaking to online news site Politiko.net, Krasniqi called for the formation of a coalition government by all opposition parties.

Kosovo Serb autonomy on the horizon

Any approach bt the PDK to the Serbian List will likely be focused on a plan granting political autonomy for Kosovo Serbs. Kosovar and Serbian governments signed in April 2013 a deal to establish a a partially self-governing entity for Kosovo municipalities with a Serb demographic majority.

Director of of the Serbian Government Office for Kosovo Marko Juic says Sunday's election opened a clear perspective for the establishment of the Kosovo Serb institution of self-government.

The Serbian government had asked Kosovo Serbs to participate in Kosovo's parliamentary election. Belgrade insists that this does not mean that Serbia recognizes Kosovo independence, but it merely admits the existence of "provisional institutions of self-government" (the Parliament and government of Kosovo) for the Albanian-majority territory. According to Belgrade, Kosovo Serb autonomy would be placed under those "provisional institutions," the final status of which is still pending a final agreement. Contrary to this, the Kosovo government considers there is nothing to negotiate as regards to Kosovo's status as an independent country.

Turnout in North Kosovo municipalities with a Serb demographic majority, which are set to become the core of the Kosovo Serb autonomy, stood on Sunday between 17% (North Mitrovica) and 40% (Zubin Potok). Kosovo average was 41.5%.