With just 200 days to go to the Scottish independence referendum, Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond needs to cut some 15 to 20 percentage points if "yes" vote is to win the vote. He does not have much time left, not because the distance cannot be wiped out -it sometimes happen-,  because it has essentially remained very stable over the last few months, with "no" vote comfortably leading voter intention.

On upper left graph (click on it to enlarge), results of surveys carried out by two institutes (YouGov and Panelbase) over the last half a year are shown. Data show that, according to the YouGov sequence (square icons), the difference in favor of "no" vote has slightly fallen. But in contrast, the Panelbase sequence ( triangular icons) suggest otherwise: "no" vote has now larger margin than two or three months ago.

Analyst and YouGov President Peter Kellner yesterday drew conclusions from his institute surveys. Kellner noted that Salmond needs to convince some 300,000 new people about the benefits of independence. YouGov President explained that citizens' opinions on the matter are increasingly well-defined (on the graph, in yellow icons, a slight decrease of undecided people can be seen), but he also said that the pro-independence camp still has some reasons for hope.

According to the analysis by Kellner, the"yes" campaign still can grab further support among women. The most recent YouGov poll shows that women (26% "yes", 57 % "no") are much more opposed to independence than men (44% "yes", 48 % "no"), while the percentage of undecided female population (17%) is much higher than that of men (7%). "In general, women are more fearful of the practical consequences of independence", Kellner says. The Scottish Government has tried to prove that women are negatively hit by UK Government cuts, and has said that women would be the main beneficiaries of independence. By the moment, it seems that the message has not had a significant impact.

Kellner also said yesterday that another group could be a "key" to reverse trends: working class voters of Labour. The analyst recalled that "large numbers" of those voters supported the SNP in the 2011 Scottish election: "They have shown that they can reject Labour's message once. Can they be persuaded to do so again?", he wonders. Indeed, emphasis on social aspects of independence is one of the main focus of the "yes" campaign by the Scottish Government and Yes Scotland, an emphasis aimed at segments of the population like this one.

The currency debate

A third element that could also make voters swing from one position to another is the currency debate. For some weeks, the debate over independent Scotland's currency has placed itself in a central position. The Scottish Government is in favor of continued use of the UK pound, says that the currency will be kept if Scotland wishes so, and proposes that independent Scotland and the UK establish a new currency union.

From London, by contrast, it is underlined that a UK exit also means a pound exit, and that without a formal currency union, the UK Treasury will not bail Scottish banks if ever needed.

The most recent Panelbase poll includes a question on the matter. Results show that the preference for keeping the pound is very strong (58%) among Scottish voters. Only 11% of Scots would like to create a currency of their own, and 4% would be in favor of joining the euro. However, a significant 24% admit they do not have enough information on this. The pro-independence campaign could also try to make a way through this segment of the population, especially considering that these uninformed people are more common among those declaring that they do not know what to vote, or that will vote "no", than among those who want to vote "yes".