Since independence in 1991, Moldova has undergone internal divisions and tensions both because of secessionist movements in Gagauzia and Transnistria and because of different geopolitical orientations. The situation has worsened in recent months, as part of the geopolitical struggle opposing the EU to Russia in that area of Europe. Convulsion shaking its eastern neighbour Ukraine is further contributing to a tense environment.

A significant referendum

Disobeying a ban from the Moldovan Government, Gagauzia (an Moldovan autonomous territory mostly inhabited by people of Turkic origin) held a referendum on February 2nd, which resulted in 98.9% of votes in favour of secession if Moldova eventually loses its own independence, and also in favour of integration into the Russian-led Customs, together with Belarus and Kazakhstan.

The referendum, Balcani Caucaso writes, was funded by a Russian businessman of Gagauz origin, Yuri Yakubov. Declared illegal by the Supreme Court of Moldova, the referendum was called shortly after the initial signing of the Association Agreement between the European Union and the former Soviet republic. Before Chisinau and Brussels signed the deal, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin warned that "Moldova's train en route to Europe would lose its wagons in Transnistria" if the Moldovan Government went on separating the country from Russia's area of influence

Transnistria is a republic that declared independence from Moldova at the end of the Soviet Union. It has remained within the Russian orbit ever since, although its independence has never recognized by any other country. President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso replied Rogozin by saying that it is up to the Moldovan Government, on behalf of the people, to make decisions without any external pressure.

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As a paradox, 30% of Transnistrians consider themselves to be Moldovans, but in practice they receive almost no recognition from local authorities, even though the Moldovan authorities have required them to do so. The Russian Government says it does not wish to interfere in Moldova's internal affairs. At least apparently, even Moldovan Prime Minister Iuri Leanca has admitted this by declaring that "Russia has no intention of accepting the integration of Transnistria into the [Russian] Federation". However, facts show that Transnistria is trying to move towards its admission as a new republic of the Russian Federation: Transnistrian President Yevgeny Shevchuk proposed last December that Transnistria adopted Russian federal law. Shevchuk then claimed that Transnistria's "national idea" is based on having a state of its own as part of a union with the Russian Federation.

Another EU-Russia battlefield

Gagauzia's inhabitants are quite homogeneous, with 80% declaring themselves to be ethnic Gagauz. Most Gagauz usually vote the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM, Gagauzia's ruling party), which has pro-Russian leanings. In contrast, the Moldovan Government is made up of a coalition of center-right party which want to advance towards EU integration. Moldova is therefore one of the battlefields where pro-European and pro-Russian positions face. So far, the Russian Government has in its hands the power to expel thousands of Moldovans working in Russian territory if things get tough for Russian interests. An embargo on Moldovan products could also be decreed (21% of Moldovan exports go to Russia, see right box) and blocking energy supplies in case Moldova got even closer to the EU.

Why are the Gagauz taking this stance? PhD in Political Science and Eastern Europe specialist Gilles Ribadière says that the Gagauz feel more confidence with the Slavic world (thus Russia) than with the Latin world (several EU countries, specially Romania). The Gagauz, according to this explanation, did not vote against the EU itself, but against the fear of being assimilated into an unknown regional group.

Will this attitude will negatively affect Moldova's integration process into the EU? The answer might depend more on the way Russia will exploit the situation to its own benefit than on the Gagauz strength (150,000 people out 3.5 million Moldovans).

Touched by the Ukrainian crisis

The Russian Government knows that it can play several cards in Moldova: Gagauzia, Transnistria and the PCRM. Former Moldovan Prime Minister Vladimir Voronin-led party has adopted a resolution in which it alligns iself with the Kremlin's position regarding events in Ukraine. The PCMR says that Ukrainian oppositors (now in government) have seized power by "violent" means and that this has happened thanks to the involvement of the US and the EU.

The Moldovan Government fears a contagion of Ukrainian unrest into Moldova. Moldovan President Nicolae Timofti warned a few days ago that there will be "attempts" to prevent Moldova from further approaching the EU, and that Transnistria could be a key element in those attempts. He did not specify by whom will be those attemps be made, but if one recalls Rogozin's words, the wind direction can be felt.

Meanwhile, the EU is now maintaining a prudent silence over Moldova and Russia, at least not to raise new issues in its troubled relationship with Putin's government. But this does not mean that the UE is standing idly. Brussels wants the final signing of the Association Agreement to be finalized this summer, before November's parliamentary election in Moldova. At the same time, the EU insists on two ideas: on the one hand, that the admission of Moldova does not imply cutting its independence, and on the other, that in no case it has to do with claims made ​​by the some Romanian nationalists for the annexation of the Moldovan state into a Greater Romania.

President of the Economic and Social Committee of the European Union Henri Malosse visited Moldova on 20th February and also tried to present EU membership as desirable for Moldova. Speaking of the results of the Gagauz referendum, Malosse said that the issue raised had a wrong choice because the European perspective is a matter of values, and not a matter of choosing between Brussels and Moscow. But Malosse conceded that Gagauzia had clearly expressed its good relationship with Russia, and he admitted that the EU should understand those feelings and even seek compatibility between the Association Agreement and customs agreements with Russia.