Meetings of the newly elected Constitutional Assembly of Nepal have started after Nepalese elected their 601 AMs in November 2013. Representatives are responsible for drawing up a Constitution for the Asian country. It is the second time that AMs will try to draft a Charter: the former Constitutional Assembly, elected in 2008, debated for four years on that and finally did not agree on a final text. One of the biggest reasons that derailed its work was the fcat that AMs could not reach a definitive deal on what kind of federalism should be implemented in Nepal: one based on ethnic divisions, or rather one based in multiethnic regions.

The need to write a new Constitution emerged from the fall of the monarchy in 2008. The same year saw the Nepalese choose a Constituent Assembly. The deadline to reach consensus on the Charter was extended until 2012, when the major parties stroke a deal on a federal Nepal made up on 11 states. But demonstrations by ethnic organizations forced the Maoists (then the main party in the Assembly) to withdraw from the agreement.

Last November, the Nepalese were again called to the polls in order to choose a new Constitutional Assembly, made up of 601 members. AMs have now promised that the Constitution will be ready within a year, although some leaders have warned that the Assembly has a four-year term and, therefore, discussions could be extended beyond 2014.

Proponents of ethnic-based federalism have lost ground in the new Assembly. The largest party is now the Nepali Congress, which favours decentralization and a federal system based on multiethnic regions. A federal system based on ethnic divisions would break "unity and stability in Nepal", President of Nepali Congress Sushil Koirala said two years ago. According to the party, only seven federated states should be created, since a larger number would not be economically viable.

The second largest party, the Communist Party of Nepal (Marxist-Leninist) maintains a similar position on the matter: it also rejects the division of the country into ethnic units. Marxist-Leninists believe that ethnic divisions could lead to civil war and argue that such a system would not be economically sustainable.

In contrast, the third largest party, the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) wants each main ethnic group to have its own federal region. This for example mens that the Limbu peopel would have its own state in the eastern mountains. The same goes for the Madheshi (in the southern plains), and so on until reaching 11 states. This position is shared by the Madheshi parties, who believe that Nepali governments have historically marginalized the Madheshi and their territory (Terai) and have disproportionately benefited the capital city Kathmandu.

Possible majority for multiethnic federalism

But the electoral setback suffered by Maoists in November means that the introduction of ethnic federalism is now more unlikely than before. Marxist-Lenininst Secretary Shankar Pokharel said some days ago that now there is a clear mandate in favor of a Nepal comprising multi-ethnic states. In order to promulgate the new Constitution, a two-thirds majority is required in the Constituent Assembly. The Nepali Congress and the Marxist-Leninists are 30 AMs short of the needed figure. But agreements with smaller groups could give them the required majority.

(Image: flag of Nepal / picture by MShades / Chris Gladis.)