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Potential for further diplomatic tension between Russia and the West over Ukraine

Crimea is an autonomous republic with a pro-Russian majority within a pro-Western state · Kiev and Chisinau fear Moscow’s attempts to destabilize neighbouring Georgia by recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia could set a precedent.

After recent events in Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova, which both border south-western Russia, are afraid they may be the next targets if Moscow pursues a strategy of destabilizing its neighbours politically and militarily. Russia enjoys considerable support in regions within both Ukraine (the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) and Moldova (the "de facto" independent Republic of Transnistria).

When Georgia attempted to take back South Ossetia and the Russian army responded, Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko was quick to express support for the Georgian Government. Relations between Ukraine and Russia have been tense in recent years, mainly due to the presence of Russian troops on the Crimean Peninsula, where Russia's Black Sea Fleet is based. Moreover, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is the only Ukrainian region with an ethnic Russian majority: according to Minority Rights Group, Russians make up 60% of the Crimean population, with 24% Ukrainian and 12% Tatar.

According to RFE/RL, there is a general feeling among Crimea's ethnic Russian population that the peninsula should be reintegrated into the Federation, while the ethnic Ukrainian population sees the Russian military presence as a continuing "act of aggression". The status of the Tatar population is an even more complicated affair. Crimea's Tatar community fell victim to mass deportations under Stalin, and it was not until the late 1980s that the Tatars were granted the right to return. Many returned following Ukraine's independence from the Russian Federation, which caused and continues to cause considerable problems in terms of respect for the rights of the Tatar community.

Following events in Georgia, several Western countries were quick to pledge support to Kiev. British Foreign Minister David Miliband visited Ukraine on Monday, and according to Le Monde.fr, an EU-Ukraine summit will be held on 9 September with a view to reaching an association agreement and "sending a message to Moscow".

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