Defying the predictions of most analysts, on Tuesday Russian President Dimitri Medvedev announced that the Russian Federation had officially recognized the independence of the breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, just one day after the two Russian legislative houses approved non-binding resolutions on the issue.

Once again, the Russian Federation has demonstrated its power on the international scene. Some analysts did not believe Medvedev would dare recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent, particularly under the present climate. It was said that Russia was not interested in straining already tense relations with the West and that recognizing the independence of the breakaway republics could be counter-productive in terms of Russia's own territorial conflicts in the North Caucasus with Chechnya and, to a lesser extent, Ingushetia.

But it has become increasingly clear since Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence, facilitated by the European Union and the United States, that Russia has no intention whatsoever of giving any ground.

According to the BBC, at a televised press conference held on Tuesday Medvedev revealed that he had signed the necessary decrees officially recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent. But it remains to be seen which reason Moscow will give for acknowledging the sovereignty of the two Caucasian republics. In an article published by RFE/RL, Victor Yasmann says that Moscow is unlikely to emphasise the concept of self-determination to avoid the possibility of a chain-reaction within the Russian Federation and other former Soviet Republics. "Instead," he predicted, "[Russia] will actively push arguments related to charges of Georgian ‘genocide'." It is also worth mentioning that both South Ossetia and Abkhazia have held referendums in recent years on independence from Georgia, and the separatist camp won in both countries.

It is difficult to predict what consequences the Kremlin's latest decision will have. But recognition of Abkhaz and South Ossetian independence will clearly not make relations between Russia and the West any easier. On Monday, US President George Bush warned Moscow not to go ahead with plans to recognize the breakaway republics, since "Abkhazia and South Ossetia are within the internationally recognized borders of Georgia, and they must remain so."

Further information:

• BBC: Russia recognises Georgian rebels
• Russia Today: Medvedev backs independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia
• The New York Times: Bush Presses Russia Not to Recognize Georgia Regions
• RFE/RL: The Looming Diplomatic War Between Russia And The West