Most Russian troops have now withdrawn from Georgian territory and violence between the two countries has come to an end. But the war of diplomacy is still raging, and any movement by either of the two sides that emerged during the conflict has the potential to change the balance of power. All eyes could soon be on another hot spot in Eastern Europe, Transnistria.

Transnistria is a long, narrow strip of land between Moldova and Ukraine. Like South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh and Northern Cyprus, it is a de facto independent republic but its sovereignty is not internationally recognized. Officially within the borders of Moldovan territory, Transnistria declared its independence in 1990 and, after a war with Moldova in 1992, it set up its own democratic apparatus, a multi-party system, a parliament and a government based in Tiraspol, the capital.

Since its declaration of independence and the ensuing war, Transnistria has openly been backed by Russia. Although it does not officially recognize Transnistrian sovereignty, Russia has defended the country against Moldova in diplomatic and military terms and maintains peacekeeping forces there, as in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Ten days ago the President of Transnistria, Igor Smirnov, took advantage of the international interest in the Russia-Georgia conflict to denounce "the aggression of Georgian nationalists". He was quick to draw a comparison between Transnistria and the Caucasian breakaway republics: "If European legislation is grounded on this type of democracy, the choice of Abkhazia, Ossetia and Transnistria to become independent states is well-founded". "If Europe really wants peace and calm," he urged, "it must not hesitate in recognizing our independence".

Moldova and Romania are also aware that the situation in Transnistria is dangerously similar to that of South Ossetia. This week, Romanian President Traian Basescu said that "efforts to keep the peace in Transnistria are at breaking point and, given the right political conditions, conflict could erupt at any time". He went on to say that "events in Georgia have shown that we are unprepared. The events of the past weeks could be repeated in any other zone where there is a ‘frozen conflict'". Meanwhile, The Moscow Times reported on Friday that the President of Moldova, Vladimir Voronin, has asked the European Union to help Chisinau find a "peaceful solution to the crisis in the separatist region of Transnistria".

Further information:

• Le Courrier des Balkans: Crise géorgienne : la Transnistrie en profite pour réclamer sa reconnaissance
• Moldova.org: Basescu: Transdniestrian conflict could break out
• The Moscow Times: Moldova Seeks EU Help