If a democratic referendum on Catalan independence were held today, most Catalans would vote “yes”, according to a report entitled “Language and identity in Catalonia”, which the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC, Open University of Catalonia) published after conducting interviews with 1,108 people from across Catalonia. This is the first time that the “yes” vote has come out on top in an opinion poll: 36% of the electorate would vote “yes”, 22% would vote “no” and 27% would abstain.

The opinion poll shows the importance of undecided voters, those who do not yet know which way they would vote (12%). If none voted, the “yes” camp would win with 62%, and even if half of them voted against independence, the “yes” vote would still obtain 56%. According to the UOC’s estimates, all undecided voters would have to vote “no” to stop the “yes” camp achieving a majority.

If these were the results of an actual referendum, the European Union would be likely to accept Catalan independence. Montenegro had to meet two conditions to declare itself independent: 55% of voters in favour of independence and a turnout of over 50%. The UOC’s report shows that both these conditions would be met if a referendum was held in Catalonia today.

The results of the opinion poll are surprising because it is the first time that independence has been shown to be the preferred option for Catalans in a vote on self-determination. The website of the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió, the Catalan Government’s department for statistics, which gives details of recent political opinion polls (Baròmetres d’Opinió Política), has never registered such a high level of support for independence: the latest opinion poll suggests 33.4% of Catalans want secession from Spain.

Further information:

• UOC: Llengua i identitat a Catalunya
• Racó Català: Un estudi de la UOC afirma que una majoria de catalans donaria suport a una eventual independència