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Domestic and regional context complicates South Kurdistan independence referendum plans
Iraq's Kurdish semi-autonomous government finds itself immersed in a serious economic, political and military crisis · Barzani wants to hold the non-binding vote before November, admits it will not lead to an automatic declaration of independence
As regards economy, KRG oil revenues have decreased following lower oil prices in the global market. The region's external debt has increased, and public servants are not paid their salaries on time. In October 2015, a series of protests led by public service employees left several dead. New protests erupted in January 2016.
Protests are also linked to the fact that Barzani did not accept to step down from the KRG presidency in August 2015, after a two-year extension of his second and final term -which was over in 2013- expired. Since then Barzani is trying to force an agreement on his again extended presidency. His KDP party has been holding a series of meetings with other South Kurdish parties that have bore no fruit up till now. The opposition says Barzani is seeking to implement a purely autocratic system of government, with him as leader-for-life.
Third, the military context is not the most auspicious one. Although the KRG's armed forces, the Peshmerga, have partially succeeded in keeping the Islamic State away from South Kurdish territory, the jihadist group is still able to occasionally strike South Kurdistan's targets, and its fighters are still a few kilometers away from the Kurdish-held city of Kirkuk.
99% of 'yes' votes in 2005 referendum
Barzani argues "Kurdistan has every geographic, historic and human factor just as Scotland, Catalonia, Quebec and others do" to claim independence for itself.
According to the KDP leader, holding a non-binding vote will help KRG authorities to know the opinion of South Kurdistan's population on independence.
However, Barzani admitted "the referendum does not mean an immediate declaration of a [Kurdish] state," the decision being implemented "in the time and circumstances appropriate."
A vote on Kurdish independence was already held in 2005. 99% of voters then said 'yes' to Kurdish statehood.
Enjoying ample self-government within Iraq and having shown twice in polls the Kurdish appetite for independence, the KRG hopes to cement its options to achieve a sovereign state when the current Middle East conflict comes to and end. But beyond the KRG's desire for independence, large doses of diplomacy and skilled manoeuvring in the geopolitical chessboard will be needed, as the US, Iraq and Turkey -which finds itself in the midst of a reignited conflict against the PKK- all have said they will oppose any KRG's unilateral move towards secession. Only in the Israeli government a few voices in support of a Kurdish state have been recently heard.