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Puigdemont's election in Catalonia starts new phase of independence process, still a long way ahead
After pro-independence parliamentary deal, newly started 18 month term should be used to build the structures of the Catalan state · Roadmap towards independence suggests specific implementation of secession will come later on
First deadline in 30 days' time. Puigdemont vowed yesterday to go ahead with the resolution adopted by the Catalan Parliament on 9 November. This text includes a specific deadline for the new Catalan government: to "proceed the laws on the constituent process, social security and public finance" within the first 30 days of its tenure. Off course, proceeding does not necessarily imply passing or implementing them, even if JxS's roadmap says that the so-called "[Catalan] state structures" need "to be launched" over the 18-month parliamentary term, that is before summer 2017. It is however unclear that the scope of the implementation will be, especially bearing in mind that, at this stage, the legal framework -even after independence is proclaimed- will continue to be -albeit temporarily- Spain's, and furthermore there will be no Catalan Constitution yet approved. In any case, the deadline will be the first litmus test for the new pro-independence majority in Parliament. On the horizon, the threat of suspension of all three three laws by the Spanish Constitutional Court.
State structures. Public Finance, Social Security and the Central Bank are some of the state structures that the newborn Catalan state will surely need to have. The same goes for its own judicial system and the control over ports and airports, among other things. "In Junts pel Sí we have everything planned," the alliance's manifesto goes, but it does not mention how the transition from the Spanish to the Catalan state structures will be made, other than proposing the devolution of powers and the implementation of agreed processes. The closure of the manifesto's preamble is significant in this respect: "The people of Catalonia [...] is confident, as is common practice among mature democratic countries, that [its] collective will, freely and peacefully expressed in the polls, will be respected by the entire people of Catalonia, by Spain, and by the international community. "
The 48% votes issue. Pro-independence parties and groups have yet to solve an uneasy dossier on their table: to prove once for all that support for independence exceeds 50%. (In the September 27th election, votes for explicitly secessionist parties stood at 48%, those for explicitly unionist parties reached 39%, while another 13% were received by parties holding ambiguous stances on the issue.) Over the investiture debate, pro-independence parties suggested that the process for drafting a Catalan Constitution -which is expected to be led by civil society groups and participated by individuals at its first stage- will be a good opportunity to broaden the support base for secession. But it is difficult to ignore that there are still voices, both within CUP and some JxS sectors, who advocate holding a unilateral referendum in order to solve the doubt whether the pro-independence camp actually consists of more than 48% of the voters. Thus, it can not be ruled out that such an explicit independence referendum is introduced in one stage or another -at this moment, the roadmap only foresees a referendum on the future Catalan Constitution. Furthermore, the holding of a referendum could still be a way to bring left-leaning Catalonia Yes We Can alliance -made up by a majority of federalists, but with some pro-independence members- closer to the constituent process.
Negotiations with Madrid. Puigdemont yesterday insisted -and this is also foreseen in the Nov 9 declaration- that he favours a negotiated settlement with the Spanish government in order to realize Catalan independence. Indeed, according to JxS's roadmap, those negotiations should be launched even before the declaration of independence. However, there is no current indication that this is going to be possible, neither under the current PP government nor under any other sustained by the current majority of MPs in the Spanish Parliament: the three major parties opposed to the right to decide (PP, PSOE and Citizens) have 242 out of 350 seats in the Congress. That is indeed a very solid majority -more than two thirds of the seats- that will be hardly endangered in the event of a snap election in Spain over the coming months.