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Key stage for Catalonia's future open as 2.3 million participate in non-binding vote on independence

80% of voters -almost 1.9 million- support secession from Spain · Catalan government, several pro-sovereignty parties insist on the need to reach a deal with the Spanish government to hold a binding referendum · Madrid reiterates Spanish institutions will never accept a vote on independence · Catalan President Mas predicts next two weeks will be "decisive" in order to see if snap election can be turned into de facto referendum

A turnout of some 2.3 million people -most of them backing secession- in the non-binding independence vote that yesterday was held in Catalonia opens a new stage in the Catalan sovereignty process. The final turnout figure is yet likely to increase, since a few polling places will be open till November 25th for those people who yesterday were not able to cast their vote. Weeks to come are set to witness key developments for Catalonia-Spain relations. A so-called "plebiscite election" is now on the horizon: Catalan President Artur Mas yesterday again talked about it.

More than 2.3 million voters. The Catalan Government reported that 2,305,290 people voted in yesterday's consultation, with 100% of polling stations already counted. To that figure, more votes will eventually be added, given that voters can still cast their votes in several Catalan government offices till November 25th. Queues of voters were today seen in front of those offices. This could likely lead the final figure to be closer to 2.4 million. Taking into account that potential voters were 6.2 million -which included 900,000 foreigners who usually do not have the right to vote-, the final turnout could be close to 38%.

"Yes-yes" votes to match 2006 support to the Statute of Autonomy. Voters were able to choose three different options: "yes-yes" to support the creation of a Catalan state and independence for that state, "yes-no" to support a Catalan state but not independence -i.e. federation with Spain-, and "no" for statu quo supporters. According to Catalan Government data, "yes-yes" reached 80.76% of the votes, "yes-no" stood at 10.07%, and "no" got 4.54% of the ballots. The final vote count including ballots cast till November 25th will very likely put "yes-yes" above the 1.9 million vote threshold. That figure is higher than that obtained by the "yes" to autonomy in the 2006 referendum on the Catalan Statute.

Government and citizens ignore suspension. In quantitative terms, a 2.3 million turnout is a significant figure, especially considering that it was a non-binding consultation, no postal voting was allowed, and less polling stations than usual were opened. But in qualitative terms, the most important aspect is possibly the fact that the government of Catalonia and voters ignored a Constitutional Court order to suspend the vote, which had been issued on November 4th. This has led Catalan pro-sovereignty parties to stress that Spain's institutions have now been disavowed by the Catalan government and a considerable part of the Catalan people.

International observers endorse the voting process. Although Spanish pro-union parties and the Spanish government insisted that yesterday's vote did not enjoy basic democratic guarantees, a delegation of international observers -led by Scottish unionist MEP Ian Duncan- who yesterday monitored the voting process said it had been "successful" despite existing technical obstacles, among which a limited number of polling stations available and challenging circumstances.

Catalans once again trying to look for an agreement with Madrid. Catalan President Artur Mas last week said that he would be today sending a letter to Spanish President Mariano Rajoy, asking him again for an agreement to hold an independence referendum with all consequences. Pro-independence parties ERC and CUP believe this is a sterile option, but pro-sovereignty UDC and ICV yeesterday and today insisted on trying again such a roadmap. Signals from Madrid however show there is little room for a deal: the Spanish government yesterday reiterated that no independence referendum will be held, and furthermore it downplayed the validity of yesterday's vote. Meanwhile, Spanish judiciary is investigating whether the non-binding vote organizers -with the Catalan goverment at the top place- had committed offences of disobedience, embezzlement and prevarication.

Two "decisive" weeks for a "plebiscite election." Assuming the likelihood of another refusal by the Spanish government, the "plebiscite election" scenario  comes to the forefront of Catalan politics. "Plebiscite election" is a term coined in recent years in Catalonia to mean that, if a referendum on independence cannot be legally held, then a snap election to the Catalan Parliament could be used as a de facto vote on secession. If pro-independence parties get an absolute majority of votes and MPs, it will be understood that Catalans have supported secession from Spain. Main pro-independence civil society organizations Catalan National Assembly and Òmnium support the move, as does CATN advisory body. Speaking yesterday on Catalan national broadcaster TV3, Artur Mas predicted that this week and the next one will be "decisive" for this, but he also warned that currently "no agreement exists" among pro-sovereignty parties on the issue. One month ago, Mas specified that pro-independence parties should join into "a single list with a single manifesto." Mas's party CDC could be in favor of such an option, but other pro-independence parties ERC and CUP reject a common list. They instead propose to share a single item manifesto on independence.

(Image: A queue at a polling station yesterday / picture by L'Accent.)