Basque nationalists win comfortable victory, broad popular support for right to decide confirmed

Basque president Iñigo Urkullu's PNV has enough seats to choose whatever government partner it wants · Pro-independence left alliance clearly retains second place

26.09.201611.15h

Basque president Iñigo Urkullu's Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) emerged strengthened from yesterday's Basque election as it managed to win 29 seats -its third best result ever- in the 75-seat Basque Parliament. PNV has now enough seats to strike a deal with whatever government partner it chooses among the other four parties in Parliament. Urkullu's best tune is with the Spanish Socialists (PSOE), but wider Spanish politics might advise his party to design a more open pact strategy that also includes the Spanish Conservatives (PP).

This might be the case if Urkullu is ready to seek -as he said both yesterday and throughout the election campaign- a "new pact with the [Spanish] state," a "plural institutional agreement," that leads to increased self-government for Euskadi. As of today, no alternative to a PP government in Spain seems to be feasible. Furthermore, yesterday's Basque and Galician elections did not reinforce options for an alternative -yet very difficult- alternative three-party deal in Spain (PSOE, Podemos and Citizens), but quite just the opposite.

Increased self-government demands undoubtedly enjoy a very large majority support in the Basque Country. Yesterday's top three parties (57 seats out of 75) were running under manifestos that state that the current Basque autonomy is not enough, and claim the Basque Country should freely decide its own future.

PNV, as said, is the first one of those parties. The second one is EH Bildu, a left-wing pro-independence alliance that managed to retain 17 seats (21 previously) and clearly improved results if compared to the two most recent Spanish elections. The third one is Elkarrekin Podemos, the Basque alliance led by Pablo Iglesias's left-wing Podemos party. With 11 seats the first time ever it has contested an Euskadi election, Podemos has managed to overcome Spain's two main parties PP and PSOE (9 seats each, their worst combined result since 1980).

But all indications lead analysts to say that any new framework for Basque self-government has a very difficult way ahead. It is true that PNV's and Podemos's horizons might be somewhat close, as both say they seek increased self-government within a new setting (federal or confederal, asymmetrical) of Spanish devolution.

But on the one hand, Bildu says it is not time for more autonomy deals, but for outright independence -even if the left-wing alliance could by the moment accept to just talk about the right to decide. And on the other hand, and most important of all, little to no expectations currently exist in the Spanish Parliament or government to see a powerful enough political party there that might be ready to accept the emergence of such a new scenario in which the three pro-right-to-decide parties' proposals could be implemented.

Bildu yesterday again called on the PNV to start the course towards Basque sovereignty. Nothing, however, indicates that Urkullu could be ready to launch such a bid over the 2016-2020 term. PNV leaders have long been talking about "stability". They say they indeed want enlarged self-government, but only through quiet ways and, if necessary, as a medium or long term goal.

Voters' preferences endorsed the PNV's bid and, in addition, yesterday's poll left two figures that do not facilitate further political change. On the one hand, a -now unlikely- left-wing deal in the Basque Parliament (Bildu, Podemos and PSOE) would only have 37 seats -38 are required for an absolute majority. And on the other, Bildu and Podemos combined have one seat less (28) than PNV has (29).