News
Spanish conservatives seek renewed absolute majority in Galicia election, left camp to undergo major changes
Newcomer En Marea predicted to overtake PSOE, become Galicia's main left-wing party · Pro-sovereignty BNG struggle to limit seat losses
In the 2012 election, PP won a comfortable majority of 41 out of 75 seats in the Galician Parliament. Opinion polls now suggest a slight downward trend for Galician president Alberto Núñez Feijoo's party, which nevertheless is still expected to get 38 to 40 seats. That is enough to allow PP to form a government of their own.
Such a scenario could have further implications, given that a wide margin victory could give PP leaders more arguments to force PSOE to let conservative leader Mariano Rajoy to form a government in Spain. That would prevent a Spanish legislative election from being called for a record third consecutive time next December.
As for self-government issues, PP's 2016 manifesto merely quotes a list of pending transfers of powers from the Spanish to the Galician government which the conservative party says should now be negotiated. PP argues there is no need to introduce any amendments to the Spanish Constitution or the Galician Statute of Autonomy.
Left camp reshaped
The emergence of En Marea party is likely to reshape Galicia's left camp. En Marea, with judge Luis Villares as presidential candidate, brings together several left-wing, city-based parties that got remarkable success in the 2015 local elections (the so-called Mareas, who are now in power in La Coruña, Santiago and Ferrol) along with United Left, Anova (Galician pro-sovereignty) and, reluctantly, Podemos, who pressed to establish an alliance of different parties rather than one single party, as was finally the case.
En Marea expects to overtake PSOE and thus become Galicia's strongest left-wing party. Villares says he is ready to lead a left-wing coalition government (made up of, or supported by, En Marea, PSOE and BNG) if PP is not able to reach an absolute majority. But even in that case, the Spanish conservatives could hold on to government if newcomer Spanish nationalist Citizens' party (C's) manages to get some seats in the Galician Parliament and agrees to strike a deal with them.
Some surveys say En Marea could stand at 20 seats (well above the 9 seats that a United Left-Anova alliance reached in 2012), but other pollsters predict the left-wing party will just get some 12 seats.
If the 20-seat scenario comes true, then it is very likely that En Marea indeed becomes Galicia's largest left-wing party. Their manifesto says Galician self-government should be expanded in a two-phase period. In the short term, En Marea wants the Spanish government to transfer more powers (including more fiscal autonomy) to the Galician government. In the medium and long term, they advocate a Spain-wide constituent process in which Galicia "freely decides how to internally organize itself" within a "framework of coexistence between different peoples in the [Iberian] peninsula."
However, the 12-seat scenario would likely keep PSOE as the main left-wing party in Galicia. Such an outcome could in turn strengthen PSOE at the Spanish level, with party leader Pedro Sánchez having more reasons not to bend to PP (and to internal) pressure and to lead Spain to a snap election again.
Pro-sovereignty BNG in downward trend, but seeking to resist
One election after another since 2012, left-wing pro-sovereignty Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG) has performed poorly in elections, even losing their seats in the Spanish Parliament. Some polls now say BNG risks being relegated to near irrelevance in the Galician Parliament, with a mere 1 or 2 seats. Other surveys, however, expect the party to hold 4 to 6 seats. They now have 7.
BNG's manifesto says the current Statute of Autonomy is no longer a useful tool, and advocates to agree on a new "Galician framework for free choice" which should include the right to self-determination of a fully sovereign Galicia. In the short term, as in the case of En Marea, BNG calls for the devolution of further powers and taxes.