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Basque nationalists favourite to win election contested against backdrop of political changes

Urkullu's PNV looks set to improve 2012 results, according to surveys · PNV's, Bildu's and Podemos's manifestos assert need for new self-government deal, but different approaches persist

The Basque Parliament.
The Basque Parliament. Author: Mikel Arrazola
As it was the case in 2012, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV, centre-right pro-sovereignty) is set to secure victory in the Basque Parliament election taking place on Sunday 25. Or at least this is what all opinion polls released last week are predicting. Surveys point to a PNV's slight upward trend if compared to results four years ago. But the Basque parliamentary chamber is likely to undergo a major change in membership as left-wing Podemos party is predicted to emerge as a major force.

Basque-wide parties

Basque president Iñigo Urkullu looks well placed to secure a new term if his PNV gets, as expected, a wide-margin victory. Still, the centre-right Basque nationalists will need to strike a deal with at least one more party, as not a single poll expects them to get an absolute majority: according to surveys, PNV will stand at 26 to 29 seats -in 2012 the party got 27.

Urkullu defines himself as a "pro-independence man of the 21st century" and a "pragmatic sovereignist" who believes in "shared sovereignty," and his party's manifesto does not advocate independence, but a reform to the Basque Statute of Autonomy over the 2016-2020 term.

The reform, the manifesto argues, should lead to several changes, including the recognition of the right of the Basque people to freely decide its own political future, and the recognition of the Basque nation. It should also hold a new principle: all legislative powers shall be exercised by the Basque Parliament except those matters specifically delegated to Spain. This, the text says, should be done in agreement with the Spanish government, by constitutional means only, and without resorting to unilateralism.

That is quite different from the currently hegemonic approach in Catalonia, and is obviously one of the main reasons why any agreement of PNV with Basque pro-independence left alliance Bildu remains unlikely as of today.

Bildu's manifesto advocates a kind of national conversation in the Basque Country to agree on a "new political status." The pro-independence alliance says such a deal should be submitted to democratic consultation among Basque citizens, and then implemented "regardless of Spain's stance" on the issue. In any case, the new status should bring the achievement of "full sovereignty" to the Basque Country, the alliance's manifesto holds.

Pollsters expect Bildu to lose a handful of seats if compared to their 2012 result -21 seats, their best ever. Now, surveys say they could manage to win 15 to 18. However, it is also true that earlier opinion polls had predicted a steeper decline. So it remains to be seen whether the left-wing alliance -led by Arnaldo Otegi, whom the Spanish Constitutional Court has banned as candidate- will be able to get a result closer to that of 2012.

Spain-wide parties

Possibly, one of the keys that will ultimately explain Bildu's result will be whether their electoral support is eroded, or not, by the emergence of another left-wing alliance, that of Pablo Iglesias's Podemos, which in the Basque election is led by Pili Zabala, the sister of José Ignacio Zabala, who was assassinated in 1983 by state sponsored death squad GAL.

Opinion polls say Podemos -which is running under an alliance with United Left and Equo- is headed for third place in the election, and could even fight over Bildu's second place.

According to their manifesto, Podemos will seek to launch a "dialogue" eventually leading to an agreement for a new, ill-defined "territorial status" for the Basque Country, that the alliance wants to take place within the framework of a "federal and/or confederal model for Spain." According to the plan, the deal should be put to vote, and "if a clear social majority exists," voters should also be allowed to choose full independence instead.

If compared to the former parties, election prospects and manifesto wordings are very different when it comes to the two Spain's major parties -centre-left PSOE and conservative PP. The Socialists, with former Basque minister Idoia Mendia leading their list, are proposing a non quite far-reaching reform of the Statute of Autonomy. In any case, PSOE argues, it would be advisable to postpone it until Spain has eventually passed a yet unscheduled, undefined constitutional reform "in a federal sense." Conservative PP's manifesto does not even talk of a new statute and, in fact, emphasizes the need to preserve the autonomy of the three historical territories of Álava, Biscay and Gipuzkoa against, they say, "centralization" trends by the Basque government.

Polls predict a sharp decline for both parties. The Socialist Party, which currently holds 16 seats, could see that number halved. And the conservatives, who secured 10 seats in 2012, are now predicted to hold a mere 6 to 8.

Spanish nationalist party Citizens (C's) could be the last party to make it into Parliament, with 1 or 2 seats. They are seeking to -at least in part- inherit the Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) votes. In 2012 that party won 1 seat but now is no longer running for election.