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Sturgeon says another Scottish indyref “more likely than not” within her premiership

SNP manifesto stands up for second vote if "clear evidence that independence has become preferred option of a majority of Scots" emerges, or if Scotland is "taken out of the EU against our will"

Nicola Sturgeon.
Nicola Sturgeon. Author: YouTube/SNP screenshot
Scottish First Minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon thinks a second referendum on independence "is more likely than not" within her premiership. Sturgeon said so in the final stretch of the election campaign in Scotland, with a vote to elect all 129 MSPs due to be held on Thursday 5.

In a Sunday Herald interview, Sturgeon recalled that "there will be" another referendum if her party is able to persuade "more people" than in 2014 "of the case for independence."

In September 2014, 55% of Scottish voters rejected independence from the UK.

The SNP manifesto says Scotland "should have the right to hold another referendum if there is clear and sustained evidence that independence has become the preferred option of a majority of the Scottish people," or if "there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will."

Voters will be deciding in a UK-wide referendum on June 23rd whether the country should be remaining in the EU or rather leaving it.

Another SNP absolute majority at sight

The two most recent opinion polls agree to forecast another SNP absolute majority. An Ipsos Mori poll for STV gives the pro-independence party 71 seats -2 more than in 2011- while a forecast based on a Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times gives the SNP 69 seats. The absolute majority in the Scottish Parliament stands at 65 MPs.

Both surveys forecast that the other pro-independence party currently represented in Holyrood -the Greens- is set to progress and achieve 5 to 9 seats -up from 2 in 2011.

The big question to resolve is who will get the second place. In a tight race, both Labour and the Conservatives are expected to secure 20 to 30 seats each.

Polls also predict a Liberal Democrat decline, and possibly one seat for their first time ever for Eurosceptic, antidevolution United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP). Anticapitalist alliance RISE will remain outside Parliament, according to the same surveys.