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Long, uncertain road toward reconciliation and federalism awaits Burma
Nobel laureate Suu Kyi's party wins landslide election victory, seeks to implement federal system · Doubts remain whether change will meet stateless nations' demands · Constitutional amendments need to be agreed upon with the military
Once the final results of the election have been disclosed, the National League for Democracy (NLD) will have 60% of seats in the House of Nationalities and 58% in the Chamber of Representatives of the Burmese Parliament. In both chambers, the military will retain, as foreseen by law, 25% of the seats. Furthermore, the military-linked USDP party will have between 5% and 7% of the seats in both chambers.
These are key calculations, since any amendment to the Constitution requires three-quarters of MPs supporting it. That is: the military and the USDP -despite poor performance by the party- keep an effective veto right in Parliament. Suu Kyi -who is legally prohibited from becoming president but will no doubt become the new government's strong woman- said during the election campaign that her party would be seeking a deal with the military to conduct necessary reforms in Burma.
In fact, she has little choice, among other reasons because in Burma's current peculiar transition to democracy, the military has also reserved for itself three key ministries -Borders, Defense, and Interior Affairs-, and a vicepresident post too. It is difficult to know for how long will the military be willing to keep those privileges, which are incompatible with a fully democratic system. And this also affects the issue of Burma's territorial organization.
What kind of federalism?
The vast majority of stateless nations' parties -which will hold some 9% of the seats in Parliament after the election- have agreed to shelve independence demands, and now focus on the establishment of a new federal system instead. But this, of course, means the Burmese government -and the military- should be devolving some powers to the governments and parliaments of Burma's seven ethnic states -Rakhine, Chin, Kachin, Shan, Karenni, Karen and Mon- and seven Bamar-majority regions.
It remains to be seen to what extent will be the army and the NLD willing to federalize the country, and what exact set of powers they will be accepting to devolve to sub-state parliaments. Burma's states and regions currently have a certain degree of autonomy and law-making power, but their norms are ranked below those approved by the Burmese Parliament, and must be adapted to them.
Stateless nations' parties are demanding a change in the way the system operates, by clearly defining who holds which competency, and if possible, by granting full internal autonomy to ethnic states, without interference from the Burmese government.
Important for this is the fact that many of the Burmese border lands, which are rich in natural resources, fall within the territories of those ethnic states. It is doubtful that the military and the NLD can easily accept to give away powers on the management of those resources to sub-state governments. In addition, the NLD might be tempted to understand the massive vote for its candidates -also in several of those ethnic states- as an endorsement to a federal project where the Burmese government and Parliament continue to be given far more weight than regions and states.
Furthermore, it also remains to be seen if the conflict between the Burmese army and the ethnic guerrillas will come to an end. Last month, the government signed a ceasefire with eight armed groups. But seven other rejected the agreement, including the main Kachin armed group KIA/KIO.
Another outstanding issue that demands attention is the situation in Rakhine state, which has been for years the scenario of deadly clashes between the Buddhist Rakine majority and the Muslim Rohingya minority. The Burmese government continues to officially regard the Rohingya as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh -this, despite the fact that the Rohingya have been living in the Rakhine state since at least the 19th century. Tens of thousands of Rohingya have fled the climate of violence and discrimination against them. Suu Kyi has not exactly been quite vocal in criticism against the violations of Rohingya's human rights.