In order for Bougainville to economically sustain its would-be independence, Momis believes that reopening the Panguna mine is an essential move. The mine has been closed since the 1990s, after it became one of the reasons for an armed conflict opposing the Papuan army to pro-independence fighters.

Opposition to reopening Panguna is strong in Bougainville, as some believe it could have negative consequences for the island's identity if it attracts foreign workers, as it happened in the 1980. Some others fear negative effects on the environment.

But according to Bougainville government advisor Anthony Regan, revenues from within the island only cover 8% of Bougainville's budget. If it becomes an independent state, Bougainville could not possibly hope that Papua New Guinea continues to provide resources to sustain the island's government.

In addition to the economic issue, Momis argues that before the referendum, Bougainville should achieve further goals such as good governance, rule of law, and weapons disposal.

Papua New Guinea seemingly not ready to offer alternative to independence

Momis has been showing that he expects the government of Papua New Guinea to offer Bougainville enlarged self-government as an alternative to full independence. But up till now, it has not happened, and in fact the government in Port Moresby has sometimes shown little respect for present-day limited Bougainville autonomy.

If the Papuan government does not propose a credible alternative to independence, Bougainville voters are likely to massively back independence.

The reaction from the Papuan government to a "yes" vote is uncertain as well. Given that the referendum is a non-binding one, the Parliament of Papua New Guinea could decide to refuse to grant Bougainville independence if certain criteria are not met, for example if the vote is not free and fair.

The government of Papua New Guinea should think twice before choosing one outcome or the other. On the one hand, it might be risking to expose the whole Papuan state to a crisis of legitimacy, and even to an outbreak of violence in Bougainville, if it refused to accept secession in the event of a "yes" vote.

But on the other, Papua New Guinea is a very diverse country, with hundreds of ethnic groups and dozens of islands, some of them quite far away from the political centre. Some groups or regions could then understand Bougainville independence as an open door to more secessionist claims.