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Salmond: pro-union parties in "panic" as "yes" vote goes up

UK government to specify offer of further Scottish autonomy if country votes "no" in 18th September referendum · Proposal unveiled on the same day that 'Sunday Times' opinion poll says "yes" is now on the lead · Scottish First Minister argues UK last-minute offer has "no credibility"

Pro-independence Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond believes parties opposed to Scottish independence -and the UK government too- have "panic" as surveys show growing figures for the pro-independence camp since weeks. Salmond holds that pro-union parties and "no" campaign Better Together are improvising measures and arguments because they now think that a "yes" victory is a very possible scenario.

Salmond refers to a last-minute offer that the UK government announced yesterday. If Scots reject independence on September 18th, the offer goes, London will devolve further powers to Edinburgh, including tax, spending and welfare powers. The proposal will be specified in coming days.

The First Minister of Scotland argues the offer has "no credibility." Salmond says the UK government refused to include a similar proposal as a third option in the referendum. The pro-independence leader had proposed to hold a three-answer referendum in which Scots could choose between statu quo, outright independence or a middle way that would have significantly increased Scotland's powers within the UK. But the UK government refused.

First survey that says "yes" is on the lead

The offer was unveiled by UK Chancellor George Osborne on the same day the Sunday Times released the first survey since the London-Edinburgh agreement that puts "yes" on the lead. According to the YouGov opinion poll, "yes" to independence would now receive 51% of the votes, while "no" would get 49%.

In this March article Nationalia explained that the "yes" campaign needed to close the gap in two ways. First, it needed to convince women -who were then largely opposed to secession. And second, it had to focus on working class voters.

YouGov President Peter Kellner yesterday wrote that the survey data suggest that, indeed, the pro-independence camp has been able to successfully target those two groups. According to the opinion poll figures, almost half of women (47%) are now supporting independence. And among working class voters, "yes" is now on the lead: 56% against 44%. Kellner further argued that Salmond has been successful in neutralizing fears among the Scots about the problems that independence could eventually bring. The First Minister, the analyst said, has on the contrary been able to get people convinced that staying in the UK means leaving Scotland at the mercy of London-decided policies that Scotland does not want. Kellner also noted that "yes" campaign Yes Scotland has been far more effective when it comes to getting their messages heard and understood than Better Together.