Proponents of the reunification of the two halves of the French-speaking Jura region of Switzerland are only three weeks left to overhaul 17 percentage points of disadvantage. A survey released today by the Swiss national broadcasting corporation (RTS) on the referendum to be held on November 24th says it is unlikely that Bernese Jura residents accept the reunification with the canton of Jura.

The Jura region has been divided into two different cantons since 1979 (see map on the left, click on to enlarge). Its northern part has a canton of its own (the canton of Jura), while the southern part remains as an administrative district of the canton of Bern. Both halves of the Jura region are French-speaking, but the north is predominantly Catholic while the south is Protestant, which is also the majority denomination in the whole of Bern.

Since partition, partisans of Jura reunification have asked for a mechanism that could reunite both halves. In 2012, the cantons of Jura and Bern agreed to hold a referendum in November 24th 2013. As a result, the canton of Jura and the Bernese Jura could establish a new, reunified canton.

But in order for this to happen, the "yes" needs to win in both halves. According to the opinion poll, this is almost guaranteed in the canton of Jura, where 74% of respondents say they are in favor of reunification, while only 18% are against it.

However, in the Bernese Jura, the "no" vote is holding the advantage: 55% of respondents reject reunification, while 38% are in favour. 7% are undecided. The distance is smaller than it was in June, when another survey showed that 49% were opposed, 24% were favorable and 19% did not know.

'Battle' might be open in Bernese Jura's capital town Moutier

If the "no" vote wins in the Bernese Jura, a second round of referendums can still be held. The agreement between the two cantons foresees that any municipality can hold its own individual referendum in order to join the canton of Jura if there is a "no" vote in the whole of the Bernese Jura. (The deal also goes the other way round: if the "yes" vote wins, any municipality can have a vote in order to remain attached to Bern.)

Bernese Jura main town Moutier (which lies close to the current Jura-Bern border) is clearly more pro-reunification than the whole of the district. According to the survey, 62% of Moutier residents could vote "yes", while only 31% would say "no".

Thus, if Bernese Jura rejects reunification, Moutier could go for its own referendum later. The opinion poll has also asked over this, and the result is far from being clear: in that event, 48% of Moutier residents would support joining the canton of Jura, while 47% would oppose.

Further information:

• Follow-up on Nationalia: Opinion poll casts doubts on Jura reunification in Switzerland, Canton of Bern clears the way for Jura's self-determination